World Cup
Mexico
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Mexico leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Mexico head into this in World Cup fixture at Estadio Azteca in outstanding form (LWWWW), while England arrive in outstanding form (WLWWW). Mexico have a 80% win rate across their last 5 matches, compared to 75% for England over 8 games.
Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Mexico (73/100) and England (86/100) are both rated highly going forward. The model anticipates an open, goal-heavy contest.
Mexico have won 3 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home. England have been excellent on the road, winning all 3 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per away game.
Mexico have generated 1.31 xG per game recently while conceding 0.84 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. England have generated 1.56 xG per game recently while conceding 1.13 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 67% of recent matches.
England have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 5.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.
The GoalVio engine projects Mexico to win with 43% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Mexico 4340%, Draw 2247%, England 3413%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.
Head to head
Recent form
Mexico
England
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mexico vs England?
GoalVio's model predicts Mexico to win with 43% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs England?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in Mexico vs England?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mexico vs England?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.