World Cup
Mexico
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Mexico leads with 68% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Mexico head into this in World Cup fixture at Estadio Banorte in outstanding form (LWWWW), while Ecuador arrive in mixed form (LWDL). Mexico have a 80% win rate across their last 5 matches, compared to 25% for Ecuador over 4 games.
Both sides are defensively strong — Mexico (79/100) and Ecuador (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.
Mexico have won 3 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home. Ecuador have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.
Mexico have generated 1.31 xG per game recently while conceding 0.84 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Ecuador have generated 0.36 xG per game recently while conceding 0.50 xG per match.
Mexico have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The GoalVio engine projects Mexico to win with 69% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-0. Win probabilities: Mexico 6780%, Draw 1980%, Ecuador 1240%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.
Head to head
Recent form
Mexico
Ecuador
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mexico vs Ecuador?
GoalVio's model predicts Mexico to win with 69% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Ecuador?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.
Will both teams score in Mexico vs Ecuador?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mexico vs Ecuador?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.