Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colombia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mexico 1-1 Colombia
Original prediction
Colombia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 35.2% | 32.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.8% | 27.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.0% | 39.7% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Colombia
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Colombia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MexicoWWWDD
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ColombiaWWLLW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MexicoColombia
66.7Attack52.4
45.8Defence76.2
45.8Form81.0
54.5Power73.2
1.25xG1.58