Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mexico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mexico 2-0 Chile, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mexico 0-2 Chile
Original prediction
Mexico
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 58.7% | 57.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 24.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.25 | 17.6% | 18.8% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Projected Score
Mexico 2–0 Chile
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Mexico
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Mexico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MexicoLDDWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ChileLLWLW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MexicoChile
51.5Attack41.7
78.8Defence33.3
66.7Form25.0
65.5Power36.6
2.02xG0.61