Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Meux · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Meux 0-3 Rochefort
Original prediction
Meux
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 32.3% | 36.9% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.5% | 27.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.2% | 35.6% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Meux
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Meux has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MeuxDWLWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RochefortWDWDL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
MeuxRochefort
50.0Attack72.2
77.8Defence61.1
72.2Form61.1
68.4Power64.9
1.44xG1.28