Metzvs
Saint Etienne
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 2 · 9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Etienne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne
Original prediction
Saint Etienne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 26.4% | 29.5% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.3% | 27.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 47.2% | 43.5% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Saint Etienne
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Saint Etienne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20