Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metz · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metz 4-1 Rodez
Original prediction
Metz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 45.8% | 40.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.0% | 27.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.43 | 27.1% | 32.5% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Metz
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Metz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MetzDDDWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
RodezDWLWL
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MetzRodez
33.3Attack83.3
75.0Defence41.7
50.0Form58.3
56.2Power60.7
1.31xG1.21