Metropolitanovs
Marcílio Dias
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marcílio Dias · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metropolitano 2-5 Marcílio Dias
Original prediction
Marcílio Dias
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 27.3% | 33.4% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.0% | 28.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.7% | 38.3% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Marcílio Dias
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Marcílio Dias has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/4.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60