Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:02
Metropolitano

Metropolitano

Home
LWD
30
Full time
Fluminense-SC

Fluminense-SC

Away
DW
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Metropolitano(40%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Metropolitano
40%
Draw
27%
Fluminense-SC
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Metropolitano
47
Fluminense-SC
54
Defence
Metropolitano
27
Fluminense-SC
66
Momentum
Metropolitano
44
Fluminense-SC
67
Danger (xG)
Metropolitano
1.20
Fluminense-SC
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Metropolitano)
1.20
avg per match
xG for (Fluminense-SC)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Metropolitano)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Fluminense-SC)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
MetropolitanoMetropolitano
LWD
Fluminense-SCFluminense-SC
DW

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Metropolitano40%
Draw27%
Fluminense-SC33%

Metropolitano leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Metropolitano head into this in Catarinense - 2 fixture in mixed form (LWD), while Fluminense-SC arrive in mixed form (DW). Metropolitano have a 33% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 50% for Fluminense-SC over 2 games.

Tactically, Fluminense-SC hold the edge. Their decent attack (54/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Metropolitano defence (27/100), while Metropolitano's attack faces a solid Fluminense-SC backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Metropolitano have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Fluminense-SC have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Metropolitano and Fluminense-SC in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Metropolitano to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Metropolitano 3990%, Draw 2723%, Fluminense-SC 3287%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Metropolitano

Metropolitano

L
@ Blumenau
15 Jul 2026
14
W
@ Tubarao
12 Jul 2026
32
D
@ Nação
2 Jul 2026
00
Fluminense-SC

Fluminense-SC

D
vs Guarani de Palhoça
15 Jul 2026
11
W
@ Nação
12 Jul 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC?

GoalVio's model predicts Metropolitano to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more