Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metalourg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metalourg 1-1 Shortan
Original prediction
Metalourg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.7% | 51.5% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 25.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.0% | 23.3% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Metalourg
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Metalourg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MetalourgDWWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ShortanWWWWL
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MetalourgShortan
73.0Attack60.3
74.6Defence68.3
65.1Form71.4
68.4Power67.5
1.49xG0.85