Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metalourg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metalourg 2-2 Gazalkent
Original prediction
Metalourg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.3% | 58.4% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.8% | 22.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 25.9% | 19.6% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Metalourg
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Metalourg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MetalourgWDWWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GazalkentLWWWW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
MetalourgGazalkent
69.6Attack62.3
75.4Defence60.9
65.2Form59.4
67.9Power60.6
1.78xG0.85