Metallurg Lipetskvs
Zenit Penza
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 10/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metallurg Lipetsk · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metallurg Lipetsk 2-0 Zenit Penza
Original prediction
Metallurg Lipetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 56.4% | 70.0% | 13.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 21.7% | 17.3% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 21.9% | 12.7% | -9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Metallurg Lipetsk
Probability
70.0%
Model confidence
70.0%
Metallurg Lipetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40