Metallurg Lipetskvs
Strogino
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metallurg Lipetsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metallurg Lipetsk 1-0 Strogino
Original prediction
Metallurg Lipetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.9% | 64.7% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.50 | 20.4% | 18.2% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 27.7% | 17.0% | -10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Metallurg Lipetsk
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Metallurg Lipetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20