GGOALVIO

Ukraine · Premier League · 7/29/2023, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Shakhtar Donetsk · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Highconfidence

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Shakhtar Donetsk are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Shakhtar Donetsk hold a 38.8-point power-rating edge (35.7 v 74.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.8% in the Premier League, while Shakhtar Donetsk holds the strongest overall chance at 80% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Shakhtar Donetsk

Probability

79.8%

Model confidence

79.8%

Shakhtar Donetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Metalist 1925 KharkivLWLWW

GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60

BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Shakhtar DonetskLLLDW

GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 5/5
Metalist 1925 KharkivShakhtar Donetsk
35.6Attack70.0
36.7Defence73.3
25.6Form78.9
35.7Power74.5
0.54xG2.72
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