Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Meshakhte · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Meshakhte are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gardabani are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (WDLW), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Meshakhte hold a 37.5-point power-rating edge (65.8 v 28.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 87.6% in the Liga 3, while Meshakhte holds the strongest overall chance at 88% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Meshakhte
Probability
87.6%
Model confidence
87.6%
Meshakhte has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/1.00