Mes Rafsanjanvs
Ario Eslamshahr
COMPLETEDIran · Azadegan League · 10/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mes Rafsanjan 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mes Rafsanjan 1-0 Ario Eslamshahr
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.6% | 34.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 31.3% | 33.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 36.1% | 32.1% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.3%
Model confidence
34.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mes RafsanjanWDDLL
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Ario EslamshahrWWLDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Mes RafsanjanArio Eslamshahr
11.1Attack33.3
100.0Defence66.7
55.6Form66.7
59.1Power57.3
0.78xG0.67