Azadegan League
Mes Kerman
Home
Navad Urmia
AwayThe model projects 1.02 xG for Mes Kerman and 0.30 xG for Navad Urmia. Navad Urmia's projected xG of 0.30 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Mes Kerman's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.
The model projects a combined xG of 1.32 — low attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.Historical meetings between these sides have averaged 1.0 goals per game — a pattern consistent with the current xG projection and the model's under 2.5 lean.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesMes KermanNavad UrmiaProbability breakdown
Mes Kerman leads with 52% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Mes Kerman Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0
Mes Kerman host Navad Urmia in Azadegan League. Mes Kerman have recorded DDDDDL in recent matches while Navad Urmia arrive with a run of LDLLLL. These sides have met 8 times recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Mes Kerman are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.02 projected against 0.30 for Navad Urmia. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.72 is the clearest signal in the model that Mes Kerman are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.
Biggest risk: Mes Kerman's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Navad Urmia defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Mes Kerman fail to score in the first half.
Risk factors
- ⚠These sides have drawn 6 of their last 8 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Head to head
Recent form
Mes Kerman
Navad Urmia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia?
GoalVio's model predicts Mes Kerman to win with 52% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mes Kerman vs Navad Urmia?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.