Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alay · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Merw are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Alay are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Merw hold a 17.5-point power-rating edge (41.2 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.0% in the AFC Champions League Two, while Alay holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Alay
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Alay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40