Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Merw are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Ahal are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (LW), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 4 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 42.8-point power-rating edge (27.0 v 69.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 84.2% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 84% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
84.2%
Model confidence
84.2%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.50/1.50
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.50/1.00