Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aşgabat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Merw are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Aşgabat are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Aşgabat hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (27.0 v 29.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Ýokary Liga, while Aşgabat holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aşgabat
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
10.2%
Aşgabat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00