Merthyr Townvs
Truro City
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Merthyr Town 1-1 Truro City
Original prediction
Merthyr Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 34.9% | 45.5% | 10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 25.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 37.6% | 29.1% | -8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Merthyr Town
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80