GGOALVIO

England · Non League Premier - Southern South · 3/8/2025, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Merthyr Town are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Swindon Supermarine are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Merthyr Town hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 42.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.4% in the Non League Premier - Southern South, while Merthyr Town holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 83% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Merthyr Town

Probability

68.4%

Model confidence

68.4%

Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Merthyr TownDWDDD

GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
Swindon SupermarineLWDLL

GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Merthyr TownSwindon Supermarine
67.5Attack57.9
53.2Defence27.0
53.2Form38.9
57.2Power42.8
3.33xG1.44
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