GGOALVIO

England · Non League Premier - Southern South · 12/2/2023, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Merthyr Town are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Salisbury are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Salisbury hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 62.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.3% in the Non League Premier - Southern South, while Merthyr Town holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Merthyr Town

Probability

37.3%

Model confidence

37.3%

Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Merthyr TownLWWLL

GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SalisburyWWWWW

GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Merthyr TownSalisbury
67.5Attack55.6
53.2Defence63.5
53.2Form62.7
57.2Power62.5
1.57xG1.47
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