GGOALVIO

England · Non League Premier - Southern South · 4/12/2025, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Merthyr Town are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Poole Town are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Merthyr Town hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.9% in the Non League Premier - Southern South, while Merthyr Town holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Merthyr Town

Probability

53.9%

Model confidence

53.9%

Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Merthyr TownLDWWW

GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Poole TownWLWLW

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Merthyr TownPoole Town
67.5Attack33.3
53.2Defence66.7
53.2Form50.0
57.2Power53.0
2.09xG1.21
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