Merthyr Townvs
Morecambe
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Merthyr Town 0-0 Morecambe, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Merthyr Town 1-3 Morecambe
Original prediction
Morecambe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.3% | 32.9% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.1% | 30.1% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 33.6% | 37.0% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Merthyr Town 0–0 Morecambe
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Merthyr TownDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
MorecambeLLWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Merthyr TownMorecambe
40.0Attack46.7
63.3Defence70.0
43.3Form46.7
51.3Power54.5
0.77xG0.95