Merthyr Townvs
Marine
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merthyr Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Merthyr Town 0-0 Marine, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Merthyr Town 1-2 Marine
Original prediction
Merthyr Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 48.1% | 44.8% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.6% | 29.0% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.3% | 26.2% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Projected Score
Merthyr Town 0–0 Marine
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Merthyr Town
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60