Merthyr Townvs
King's Lynn Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
King's Lynn Town · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Merthyr Town 1-1 King's Lynn Town
Original prediction
King's Lynn Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.4% | 36.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.6% | 24.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 34.0% | 38.6% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
King's Lynn Town
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
King's Lynn Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00