Merthyr Townvs
Chorley
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Merthyr Town 1-1 Chorley
Original prediction
Merthyr Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.5% | 39.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.4% | 26.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 36.1% | 34.1% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Merthyr Town
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40