Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merelbeke · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Merelbeke 3-0 Harelbeke
Original prediction
Merelbeke
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 54.8% | 56.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.2% | 22.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.1% | 20.9% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Merelbeke
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Merelbeke has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MerelbekeLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HarelbekeLLLDW
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MerelbekeHarelbeke
66.7Attack11.1
55.6Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
64.7Power10.3
2.50xG1.02