Merelbekevs
Dessel Sport
COMPLETEDBelgium · First Amateur Division · 9/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merelbeke · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Merelbeke 1-1 Dessel Sport
Original prediction
Merelbeke
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.4% | 50.6% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.4% | 23.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.1% | 25.8% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Merelbeke
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Merelbeke has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20