Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Merelbeke · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Merelbeke 0-1 AS Eupen
Original prediction
Merelbeke
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.35 | 14.3% | 41.6% | 27.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.76 | 19.1% | 23.0% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 66.7% | 35.4% | -31.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
27.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Merelbeke
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Merelbeke has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MerelbekeWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AS EupenWWWLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MerelbekeAS Eupen
77.8Attack0.0
55.6Defence33.3
66.7Form0.0
64.1Power15.3
2.56xG1.30