Mercedesvs
Puerto Nuevo
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 9/25/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mercedes 0-0 Puerto Nuevo, with an exact score probability of 32%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mercedes 1-0 Puerto Nuevo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.1% | 39.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.75 | 32.3% | 35.5% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 29.5% | 25.3% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Mercedes 0–0 Puerto Nuevo
Exact score probability: 32%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.5%
Model confidence
39.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MercedesWDLLW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Puerto NuevoLLLWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MercedesPuerto Nuevo
32.2Attack31.0
73.6Defence65.5
46.0Form43.7
51.4Power48.8
0.72xG0.45