Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mercedes 0-0 Lugano, with an exact score probability of 33%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mercedes 1-0 Lugano
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 34.4% | 34.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 31.7% | 36.0% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 33.9% | 29.9% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Projected Score
Mercedes 0–0 Lugano
Exact score probability: 33%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MercedesDWWDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LuganoLDDDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
MercedesLugano
32.2Attack37.6
74.4Defence69.9
47.8Form49.5
52.4Power54.1
0.62xG0.53