Mercedesvs
Defensores de Cambaceres
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 9/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mercedes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mercedes 0-0 Defensores de Cambaceres, with an exact score probability of 33%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mercedes 0-3 Defensores de Cambaceres
Original prediction
Mercedes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.1% | 44.5% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.73 | 32.8% | 35.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.1% | 19.6% | -10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Projected Score
Mercedes 0–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
Exact score probability: 33%
Predicted outcome
Mercedes
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Mercedes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80