Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mercedes · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Mercedes are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Claypole are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Mercedes hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (54.2 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 29.3% in the Primera C, while Mercedes holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mercedes
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
29.3%
Mercedes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60