Melitavs
Mgarr United
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melita · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Melita 1-2 Mgarr United
Original prediction
Melita
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 49.6% | 49.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.1% | 25.3% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.3% | 25.0% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Melita
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Melita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MelitaWLLLW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
Mgarr UnitedLLLDD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
MelitaMgarr United
100.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
97.0Power15.3
2.18xG1.09