Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melhus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Melhus are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Orkla are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Melhus hold a 33.7-point power-rating edge (68.3 v 34.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.3% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Melhus holds the strongest overall chance at 80% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 91% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Melhus
Probability
80.3%
Model confidence
9.3%
Melhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20