Melhusvs
Aalesund II
COMPLETEDNorway · 3. Division - Girone 2 · 10/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melhus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 5-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Melhus 0-1 Aalesund II
Original prediction
Melhus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.9% | 63.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.55 | 16.4% | 18.4% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.13 | 17.7% | 18.0% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.5–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Melhus
Probability
63.6%
Model confidence
63.6%
Melhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 17 · avg 1.80/3.40