Melbourne Victoryvs
Melbourne City
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/24/2026, 8:40:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melbourne Victory · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City
Original prediction
Melbourne Victory
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 37.3% | 39.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 27.2% | 27.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.5% | 33.1% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Melbourne Victory
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Melbourne Victory has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40