Melbourne Knightsvs
Lions
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australia Cup · 8/10/2023, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melbourne Knights · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Melbourne Knights are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Lions are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Melbourne Knights hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (72.5 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.3% in the Australia Cup, while Melbourne Knights holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Melbourne Knights
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Melbourne Knights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20