Melbourne City IIvs
Green Gully
COMPLETEDAustralia · Victoria NPL · 8/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melbourne City II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Melbourne City II 1-2 Green Gully
Original prediction
Melbourne City II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.9% | 65.3% | 31.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.1% | 17.1% | -7.0 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 42.0% | 17.7% | -24.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
31.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Melbourne City II
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Melbourne City II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 0.80/3.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80