Mebrat Haylvs
Sheger Ketema
COMPLETEDEthiopia · Premier League · 10/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mebrat Hayl 0-0 Sheger Ketema, with an exact score probability of 31%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mebrat Hayl 1-0 Sheger Ketema
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 27.4% | 31.4% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.48 | 36.3% | 35.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.3% | 33.0% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Projected Score
Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Sheger Ketema
Exact score probability: 31%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mebrat HaylD
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 0/1
Sheger KetemaDW
GF 1 · GA 0 · avg 0.50/0.00
BTTS 0/2O2.5 0/2
Mebrat HaylSheger Ketema
0.0Attack16.7
100.0Defence100.0
33.3Form66.7
45.3Power64.8
0.62xG0.60