Mebrat Haylvs
Negelle Arsi
COMPLETEDEthiopia · Premier League · 10/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mebrat Hayl 0-0 Negelle Arsi, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mebrat Hayl 0-0 Negelle Arsi
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.0% | 34.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.56 | 35.2% | 34.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.7% | 31.2% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw 1.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Projected Score
Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.2%
Model confidence
34.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mebrat HaylNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
Negelle ArsiD
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 0/1
Mebrat HaylNegelle Arsi
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form33.3
50.0Power45.3
0.77xG0.63