Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MC Saida · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: MC Saida 1-0 Tiaret, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
MC Saida 1-0 Tiaret
Original prediction
MC Saida
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 12:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 56.1% | 47.4% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.1% | 28.9% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.31 | 16.7% | 23.7% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Projected Score
MC Saida 1–0 Tiaret
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
MC Saida
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
MC Saida has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MC SaidaWWDLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TiaretLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MC SaidaTiaret
44.4Attack25.0
77.8Defence41.7
77.8Form8.3
70.7Power28.6
1.56xG0.65