Mbeya Cityvs
Kagera Sugar
COMPLETEDTanzania · Ligi kuu Bara · 10/9/2026, 1:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mbeya City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mbeya City 1-0 Kagera Sugar, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mbeya City 1-3 Kagera Sugar
Original prediction
Mbeya City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.3% | 58.1% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.1% | 25.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.61 | 19.6% | 16.9% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Projected Score
Mbeya City 1–0 Kagera Sugar
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Mbeya City
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Mbeya City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mbeya CityLDWWW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Kagera SugarDLLLD
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Mbeya CityKagera Sugar
33.3Attack27.8
77.8Defence22.2
55.6Form11.1
57.0Power24.2
1.66xG0.55