Mbarara Cityvs
NEC
COMPLETEDUganda · Premier League · 9/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mbarara City 0-0 NEC
Original prediction
NEC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.17 | 21.2% | 30.2% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 29.4% | 28.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 49.4% | 41.6% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
NEC
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
NEC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Mbarara CityNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
NECW
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/1.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
Mbarara CityNEC
50.0Attack100.0
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power88.7
1.39xG1.65