Mazovia Minsk Mazowieckivs
Olimpia Zambrów
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 1 · 9/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 5-0 Olimpia Zambrów
Original prediction
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.6% | 45.9% | -16.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.84 | 18.7% | 24.7% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20