Mazovia Minsk Mazowieckivs
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 1 · 10/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Original prediction
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.8% | 44.1% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.5% | 25.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 22.7% | 30.5% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80