Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Arabi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Maziya are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Al Arabi are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Al Arabi hold a 42.1-point power-rating edge (16.7 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the AFC Challenge League, while Al Arabi holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Al Arabi
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Al Arabi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40