Mławianka Mławavs
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mławianka Mława · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mławianka Mława 3-2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Original prediction
Mławianka Mława
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.7% | 45.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.2% | 29.2% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Mławianka Mława
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Mławianka Mława has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 17 · avg 3.00/3.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40